Does bond market development enhance the banking sector’s efficiency in resource allocation? Industry-level evidence from Korea

Korea’s financial system used to be bank-based, with banks playing the leading role in financing corporations. As highlighted by Park et al. (2019), however, bond markets have developed rapidly in Korea and other Asian countries. The corporate bond market competes with banks as a source of finance for large borrowers. As such, bond markets may affect banking sector operation, a process known as disintermediation. In this paper, we examine whether bond market development improves the efficiency of resource allocation in Korean bank lending. We propose two channels through which bond market development affects the efficiency of bank lending. Since the two channels have opposing effects on the efficiency of banking, the issue must be settled by empirical analysis. We find that bank loans are much less efficient than bond financing in allocating resources across industries. Furthermore, banks are particularly inefficient in resource allocation in industries that rely more on bond financing. This suggests that competition from bond financing does not improve allocative efficiency of bank loans.     

我国省级区域金融发展对经常项目的影响研究——基于货物贸易视角的分析

本文选取我国大陆31个省(市、自治区)2007年-2018年的面板数据,综合运用系统GMM和差分GMM估计方法,实证检验了沿海与内陆、沿边与非沿边、享受优惠政策高与低、金融控制强与弱等4类不同省区金融发展对经常项目余额的影响。研究结果表明:使用全部样本估计时,金融发展显著负向影响经常项目余额,这一结论经稳健性检验后依然成立。使用不同区域的子样本估计时,金融发展对沿海省区、非沿边省区、享受优惠政策高以及金融控制弱省区的经常项目余额的抑制作用较大,而在其他省区作用较小。因此,各地区应充分利用金融手段来调整进出口余额,以保证经常项目的持续平衡。     

Understanding on-the-go consumption: A retail mix perspective

On-the-go (OTG) consumption is a growing phenomenon in the food and beverage industry. Drawing on the theory of consumption values, this study is conducted to acquire a better understanding of the influence that retail-mix elements have on OTG consumption outcomes. Specifically, this study examines the role of value for money, customer service, general assortments and healthy assortments in driving intention and satisfaction related to OTG consumption. The study also assesses the conditional value generated by the consumer's health orientation, impulsiveness and perceived time pressure. Based on a sample of 433 OTG consumers, and applying multi-group structural equation modelling (SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), value for money was identified as the key driver of OTG consumption outcomes. Impulsiveness and time pressure are shown to increase the effects of value for money perceptions on OTG consumption intention, while health orientation enhances the relationship between customer service and satisfaction. This study contributes to the literature on OTG consumption, explains the managerial implications for retailers, and offers recommendations to target OTG consumers better.     

Determining factors and impacts of the intention to adopt mobile banking app in Cameroon: Case of SARA by afriland First Bank

This study aims to know what are the factors determining the adoption of M-Banking app among customers in Cameroon. In other words, what are the factors that influence users in their decisions to adopt and use a system or technology such as the MBanking app, and indirectly, what is the impact of this use on both the customers and financial inclusion? The research model developed relying on a combination of Technology Acceptance Model (TAM ), Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology ( UTAUT2 ), Information System Success Model ( ISSM ), and Protection Motivation Theory ( PMT ) and other constructs; it was then tested with a sample of 223 users of the “ SARA” M-Banking app of the financial institution called “ Afriland First Bank” . Findings revealed that: (1) utilitarian expectation, hedonic motivation, and status gain, habit, and perceived privacy concern have a significant influence on the intention to adopt M-Banking apps; and (2) the exploitative/explorative use of this technology has an impact on user’s loyalty and satisfaction but also contributes strongly to fostering financial inclusion in Cameroon. Also, the Multi-group analysis was performed on the sample using 2 gender-based groups (males, n=121; females, n=102).     

Do leveraged warrants prompt individuals to speculate on stock price reversals?

Using proprietary data on bank-issued knock-out warrants written on a stock index, we find that individual investors’ aggregate warrant portfolio speculates against the short-term trend of the index. We argue that contrarian trading is driven by the interaction of product design and investors’ preference for large leveraged positions. Investors tend to open larger positions whenever warrants offer higher leverage. As a result, investors open an aggregate long position when calls offer higher leverage than puts. Since knock-out leverages move systematically with the underlying, aggregate warrant positions become contrarian even if investors do not intend to speculate on reversals.     

金融资源配置、技术进步与经济高质量发展

随着我国发展阶段及内外部条件的变化,科技创新已成为新时代引领我国经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文以金融驱动技术进步的视角,构建内生增长DSGE模型,分析金融资源配置、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。研究佐证了我国技术创新的逆周期性,并发现金融资源在企业生产性投资与创新投资之间的分配,可以通过改变生产要素投入规模和技术进步率两种途径影响经济增长,且这两种影响之间存在“跷跷板”关系,但后者更具主导性。在此基础上,诠释了金融、技术与经济的动态传导机制:经济扩张期,企业生产规模扩张,金融资源对生产性投资的支持增加,对创新的投入相对减少,技术进步率放缓;经济收缩期,企业缩减生产规模,金融资源对生产性投资的支持减少,对创新的投入相对增加,技术进步率提升。本研究的政策启示为,面对当前发展新矛盾、新挑战,应把握发展新格局、新机遇,进一步深化金融改革,优化金融资源配置机制,鼓励创新投资,充分发挥股权市场对企业研发创新的支持作用,并辅以稳健适度的宏观调控政策,为企业创新提供良性的宏观环境,激活企业创新需求,促进技术进步,推动经济高质量发展。     

能源企业技术创新能力对财务绩效的影响——基于企业规模的门槛效应研究

能源消费和供给的重要性使得政府给予能源企业技术创新更多关注和支持，能源企业经营存在较大风险使得能源企业技术创新能力对财务绩效的影响呈现一定特殊性。以我国能源企业2013-2018年技术创新投入与产出能力指标为样本数据，采用因子分析法和动态面板门槛效应模型，在评价能源企业技术创新能力的基础上，分别研究能源企业技术创新投入和产出能力对财务绩效的影响及企业规模门槛效应。研究结果表明，能源企业的技术创新投入和综合能力对财务绩效的影响存在显著的门槛效应，而产出能力的表现并不显著。研究结果可为国家和能源企业的技术政策制定和创新投入决策提供参考。     

Financial development,portfolio investments and the real economy in Africa

According to the conservative view, capital flows enhance economic growth. Focussing on Africa’s real economy, this study investigates the linkage between portfolio investments and real sector growth, and whether financial sector development strengthens this association. The study covers 30 countries over the period 1990–2017. We adopt the Lewbel instrumental variable general method of moments (IV-GMM) two-step robust estimator, which relies on heteroscedasticity for identification, while dealing with instrument insufficiency, unavailability, endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We found that portfolio equity has no growth impact on Africa’s real sector. Debt flows deter the growth of the overall real sector as well as the manufacturing and industrial sectors, but have no impact on agriculture and service growth. We found that financial development does strengthen the positive association between capital flows and economic growth, but this is dependent on the type of sector and portfolio investment, as well as on the degree of financial development. We control for known determinants of economic growth.     

Corporate financial distress: The case of publicly listed firms in an emerging market economy

Occurrences of financial distress (FD) are not readily obvious yet can span several periods. This paper examines episodes of FD using industry‐relative (IR) firm‐/ accounting‐, market‐ and macro‐level information. Mixed logit regressions reveal that firm‐ and market‐based measures, as well as macro‐level variables explain the likelihood of FD in 263 publicly listed non‐banking firms in the Philippines during the period 1995 to 2018. Rates of identification of firms in financial distressed states of close to 69 percent are obtained at a cutoff probability of 0.30 in the model with time‐varying intercept and slope. This study shows the importance of recognizing heterogeneous firm behavior. The ability to more accurately predict the probability of FD and to determine the financial health of firms can help financial institutions in allocating funds and policy makers in predicting crises episodes.     

Correlated daily time series and forecasting in the M4 competition

We participated in the M4 competition for time series forecasting and here describe our methods for forecasting daily time series. We used an ensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a method that we refer to as the correlator. Our retrospective analysis using the ground truth values published by the M4 organisers after the competition demonstrates that the correlator was responsible for most of our gains over the naïve constant forecasting method. We identify data leakage as one reason for its success, due partly to test data selected from different time intervals, and partly to quality issues with the original time series. We suggest that future forecasting competitions should provide actual dates for the time series so that some of these leakages could be avoided by participants.